2008 Outlook : What to do about it.

This is a great article I found on yahoo. The author gives some real good advice: 

8 Moves for Home Buyers, Sellers in ‘08

by Steve McLinden
Thursday, January 3, 2008

Heading into 2008, the market just isn’t turning around as so many predicted. The industry, it seems, has been caught up in a game of “projecting,” to use a psycho-speak term. Meanwhile, this pesky subprime headache lingers on as we start to draw a clearer picture of how recklessly this shaky housing-market foundation was laid. It’s a hangover that will last well beyond New Year’s Day. In contrast to the billions in risky ARM loans that were advanced to questionable borrowers toward the end of the boom years, many credit-worthy buyers are now getting a different kind of arm — a straight-arm — when they seek out mortgages amidst a backdrop of spiraling foreclosures and plummeting prices.

My blanket advice for would-be sellers: Stay put. Ride this out where you’re sitting if possible, because values will stabilize again. If current circumstances dictate otherwise, then you’ll have to ratchet up your marketing plan a notch to adjust to the times. As for buyers: Well, you’re “in your element” and the getting is good.

More from Bankrate.com:• Experts’ 8 Smart Moves for ‘08• Foreign Homebuyers Welcome• Selling a House Quick and Cheap

Here are eight strategies for buyers and sellers who want to make a housing move in ‘08:

8 strategies for savvy sellers

1. Understand what “market value” means.
2. Don’t be an as-is seller.
3. Hire a top performer.
4. Know your market’s nuances.
5. Use the Internet.
6. Use other people’s money.
7. Become a “lender.”
8. Simplify and neutralize.

1. Understand what “market value” means. It’s not what your friend sold his house for two years ago or even two months ago. It’s not the value your latest tax assessment was based on or what an appraiser said the house was worth a year ago. It is exactly what someone is willing to pay for your house today. Hence, price realistically and broaden incentives, such as closing costs and throw-ins like appliances, flat-screen televisions, etc. There is an old saying: “There’s nothing wrong with a home that the right price can’t fix.”

2. Don’t be an as-is seller. That is, unless you absolutely have to be one. Potential homebuyers aren’t looking for fixer-uppers in the current market unless they are rock-bottom, bargain-basement priced. Large volumes of foreclosed homes are already being sold in poor condition at auction.

3. Hire a top performer. These days, you need an agent who outshines the others and routinely posts better-than-average sales numbers year after year. Agencies may try to steer you toward less-seasoned agents, but if you’re paying the commission, then the hire should be your call. The best agents have an innate sense for that right price and right marketing plan. They can suggest the necessary repairs and tweaks while targeting your home to the right buying group. Caveat: In selecting an agent, the percentage of listings sold is generally a better performance barometer than a high volume of sales.

4. Know your market’s nuances. No two markets are exactly alike. Yes, most sellers are now swimming upstream. But there are always counter currents to consider. In many areas, modestly priced homes have bigger buying pools because tighter mortgage qualifications are keeping buyers out of more expensive homes. A little research and a savvy agent can give you an edge and an education.

5. Use the Internet. According to compete.com, total time spent online rose 24.3 percent from the fall of 2006 to the fall of 2007. Yes, people are still scoping out newspaper classified ads and real estate listing magazines, but more and more Americans have been wired to at least start their home shopping online.

6. Use other people’s money. You don’t have to sell for a big loss to get out from under your rising mortgage payments. If you can, rent out your home for a sum that covers your house payments, insurance, taxes and maintenance costs. Do try to roll in a slight buffer to cover unanticipated expenses. And realize you’ll need capital to refresh the place when the market stabilizes and you take off your landlord hat to prep the home for sale again. Or consider offering lease-to-own terms to your renter and you may not have to worry about the future sale.

7. Become a “lender.” Tough times call for unconventional measures. Consider carrying part of the buyer’s note with interest, secured by an asset belonging to the buyer. Do so only after a thorough credit check and only if you can afford to wait for the balance of the purchase price. This, by the way, is not a game for the faint of heart.

8. Simplify and neutralize. In this sales environment, you’ve probably already been told to focus on curb appeal, add fresh landscaping and de-clutter the house by removing family photos and heirlooms or other items you don’t need or use on a daily basis.

But let’s take it a step further. Paint your rooms neutral colors. Hire a redesign or home-staging firm to help you present your home in optimal condition and give potential buyers a chance to envision their possibilities there. And while you’re at it, get a pre-listing inspection, which will reveal any defects your home has and allow you time to make repairs. Then provide a copy of the report to buyers, attaching a list of the fixes you made.

Buyers are in an enviable position, with plenty of homes on the market, and sellers who are willing to bargain. Here are eight tips for buyers.

8 strategies for buyers in a flooded market

1. Negotiate, negotiate.
2. Think local.
3. Don’t bank on further market drops.
4. Keep resale potential in mind.
5. Look beyond cosmetics.
6. Consider off-peak sales seasons.
7. Use your buying leverage.
8. Ask for contingencies.

1. Negotiate, negotiate. There’s a glut of homes on the market — more than twice the average inventory in some markets. Yet there are fewer prospective buyers with whom to compete, and considerably more room for after-the-purchase value appreciation than a few years ago. Sellers are fixing up their places like never before in hopes one serious buyer will come along. Your chance to pick up a quality home for a big discount may never be better than the present. Keep those counter-offers coming. And let the seller pay all the commissions! Remember, virtually everything in a real estate transaction is negotiable.

2. Think local. I’ve said it before: All real estate is local. Employ the standard strategy of examining recent sales prices of local comparable, or “comp” houses. But take it a step further. Ask your agent for the original listing prices of comp houses and compare them to the actual sales prices. Many Internet sites also have this information. This data will give you the clearest picture of what sellers were willing to accept for their homes in your neighborhood and can help you determine just how low you can go on your offer.

3. Don’t bank on further market drops. If you have the means, pounce on that oh-so-sweet deal. This cycle appears to be at or near the bottom. You can’t confidently count on the market sinking any lower, even though it may.

4. Keep resale potential in mind. Sure, you always seek out properties with that at-home feel. But if you can find homey in or near a growing medical district, growing university or other vibrant employment center, your resale universe down the road will always be larger than the market average.

5. Look beyond cosmetics. A tired-looking house in a great area may be a much better bargain in the overall scheme of things than a sprightly, higher-priced home in the same area. Yet many of these slightly worn homes, lest they be on the foreclosure auction block, are getting roundly ignored. There are some diamonds in the rough out there now!

6. Consider off-peak sales seasons. Yeah, there’ll still be bargains aplenty come the prime spring and summer selling season and plenty of inventory to peruse. But fall and winter can be the time of especially acute seller discontent. Sellers may be more motivated to take your lowball offer then — especially if it’s the only one they get!

7. Use your buying leverage. Ask the seller’s agent when the seller bought the home, how much he paid for it, and why he’s selling. In a seller’s market, the seller would likely thumb his nose at you upon such a request. Now, they may give it a thumbs up instead.

8. Ask for contingencies. When you’ve agreed on a sales price, make your offer contingent on the home appraising at that sum, on passing the buyer’s inspection and on you obtaining financing. Work in as much legal wiggle-room as you can so you’ll be able to back out without risking your earnest money should things go sour or another opportunity arise.

Outlook for 2008: Markets and the Economy

 by Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D.

Posted on Friday, December 14, 2007, 12:00AM

 

It’s time to dust off the proverbial crystal ball and predict what’s in store for 2008. But before doing so, let’s see how I did with last year’s forecast.

Well, I was pleasantly surprised to see that I got quite a lot right despite missing the subprime crisis. I predicted that the economy was poised for a mid-cycle slowdown, similar to what we experienced in 1995, the year after the Fed had also raised rates.  I predicted GDP growth would slow in 2007 to 2½% to 3%, and despite the credit crunch, this estimate was very close.  Even if this quarter’s GDP grows by a measly 0.5%, GDP growth for 2007 will be at 2.5%.

More Related Stories:• Finance Outlook 2008 • Important Financial Events of 2007

For the US stock market, I predicted an 8% gain and greater gains for foreign markets. December still has two weeks to go, and given the recent volatility, the market could end the year anywhere.  But as of now, the S&P 500 Index is up 6.3%, while foreign markets have done significantly better.  The foreign developed markets, represented by the EAFE Index, have returned 15.6% and the emerging markets continue their torrid pace, chalking up a 42% gain.  Last year, I said that if US stocks climbed less than 8% in 2007 it would be due to $3 a gallon gasoline and the dollar falling below $1.45 per euro.

Subprime Crisis

Both barriers were breached, but the main reason for this year’s stock market malaise was the credit crisis, which, despite my bearishness on real estate, I didn’t see coming. I’ve written a fair amount about this crisis on Yahoo! Finance and downplayed its importance to the overall economy. Why? I never expected the fear of debt defaults to so swamp the reality of this problem. 

I think the actual number of delinquencies next year will be below what the market predicts, as investors have overreacted to the mortgage crisis.  When this happens, it could lead to a nice recovery in financial stocks.

Economic Growth

But the impact of the crisis on the psychology of consumers and business will leave their mark. I predict that GDP will slow in the first half of next year to between 1% and 2%, and rise in the second half, as risk premiums come down and the cost of capital falls. Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession. 

Stocks and Bonds

I think the stock market will have another winning year in 2008.  For every percentage point that stock returns fall below 8% (my prediction) this year, they should exceed 8% next year (meaning, for example, if stocks gain 6% this year, they should finish 2008 up 10%).

And I believe that financial stocks, which have plummeted 18% so far this year, will outperform the S&P 500 Index next year as the credit crisis fades.

Interest Rates

What does all this mean for interest rates?  The Fed cut the Fed funds rate to 4.25% on December 11, but it will have to do more in the coming months.  I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.

Treasuries did well in 2007, as interest rates on top-rated securities plunged in light of the credit crisis.  But as the risk spreads narrow, money will flow away from government bonds and their interest rates will rise.  I recommend investors cash in governments and top rated corporate bonds now – you got a nice ride that you won’t get next year.

Oil

There are always events (or “risks” as Wall Street calls them) that can upend these forecasts and oil is always one of them.  Despite some promising political developments in the Mideast, history has taught me to be cautious. 

If oil surges past $100 a barrel for whatever reason, we will be in trouble. Three dollar gasoline did not prove to be the tipping point for the consumer in 2007.  But with a weak housing market, I believe $4 gasoline would do considerable damage to consumers’ pocketbooks in 2008.  And $4 gasoline would happen if oil rose to $120 a barrel or higher.

Politics

Of course, next year is a presidential election.  Although the primaries appear up for grabs now with Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee making a good run, I believe that the Democrats and the Republicans will nominate front-runners Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.  After a hard fought battle, Hillary will pull through as the electorate seems ready for a new party to govern from the White House.

Since I predict the Democrats will also keep the House and Senate, a Democratic sweep will send some nervous flutters through Wall Street. But Clinton will prove to be as moderate on economic issues as was her husband.  This means that although taxes will rise on dividends and capital gains when the current low rates expire in 2010, the increases will be moderate and Wall Street will be relieved.

I’ll wait until after next year’s election before offering up another set of projections for 2009.  In the mean time, have a healthy and prosperous new year!

RECESSION? INFLATION?

Alan Greenspan was interviewed on NPR Morning Edition today and claimed the odds of the country falling into a recession are “clearly rising”.

“A severe slump in the housing market a stubborn credit crisis and turbulence on Wall Street are endangering the country’s economic health. Growth in the current October through December period is expected to have slowed to a feeble pace of just 1.5 percent, or less.” Read the full story here.

MSNBC also published an article regarding the increasing possibility of Inflation in the US. The recent quater point rate cut on 12/13/07 by Bernake, apparently did not set well with the stock traders. As a result the stock market dropped, read the full story here.

Our local and national economy are in a real jam.  Florida Governor, Charlie Crist, can not lower taxes or cut insurance rates without it will negatively impacting other entities in the process, simirlarly, the national housing slump and credit crunch can not be fixed as easily as we would like it to be.

It is important to know how this affects your purchase of a home.  If you do not intent to live in your home for more than 5 years then you you should strongly reconsider long term renting.  It will take at least that long before we here in Miami start to see a steady appreciation in homes again. The market will get better before that but we are not certain when.  One thing we are certain about is this is Miami and Miami is a sexy town, with sexy people, great beaches, great weather, and all around a great place to be. So yes we will get past this glut but it will take time.  The good news, which is really not so good, is that the rest of the economy is in a slump as well, therefore this increases pressure on the Feds and maybe even the Billionaires to act.

If you are considering to buy a home, see my last post as to why this is the perfect time to do so….